Neighbors Growing Together | May 25, 2019

“Elections have consequences” - Barack Obama

Nov 18, 2012

To the Editor,

I will leave it to economists, politicians, bankers and others to evaluate the domestic consequences of our most recent political debacle. I want to look at the global implications.

I believe that Barack Hussein Obama shares Vladimir Putin’s view that a unipolar world in which the US is the superpower is a bad thing. In this view, US power should be balanced by a reconstituted Soviet Empire and restrained by regional powers like China, Iran, and Venezuela/Cuba (on a smaller, nuisance level). I further believe that in the past four years of pursuing policies in support of that view, the Administration has been instrumental in creating an important new alliance: China/North Korea, Iran, Russia, and all of their combined clients. This notwithstanding, that these players have important issues with each other. This alliance of convenience has one major target: the projected power of the US. In this effort to cut US power down to size, they enjoy the implied and sometimes overt support of the American Left and the chattering classes they dominate, and the revisionist historians and social scientists in academia. This view and its historical justifications is on view now Showtime with Oliver Stones new “documentary” about America’s real history. A parade of left wing revisionist ideologues are giving us the real history of the American empire.

All that said, here is what I see in the near future.

China will continue to support North Korea and its destabilizing behavior in Asia, all the while pretending a desire to assist the “International Community” in its efforts to tame North Korea’s nuclear weapons behavior. China has no such desire and may in fact be controlling the DPRK’s nuclear program now. North Korea (the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea) gives China a perfect cat’s paw that comes with built-in deniability: no sane, mature country could support those madmen, right? Expect soon, a new nuclear test, a new missile test, perhaps lobbed over Japan. Shortly after that, an incident in the South China Sea between China and the US which will illustrate China’s intention to drive the US out of the Western Pacific. China intends to bully the Philippines, Viet Nam, Indonesia in the south, and Japan and Taiwan further north into yielding control of the region’s offshore resources (oil, gas, metals) to Beijing and will not tolerate American interference in the process. The ongoing weakening of US military capabilities proposed and contemplated by the Administration plays into this Chinese ambition. But that’s OK with these fools because “the US has enjoyed the benefits of Empire long enough.” The point of the DPRK/China show is to demonstrate the continuing decline in US power projection capability and to demonstrate to Free Asia just how far away the US really is. Meanwhile another dimension of this game will be the continuing DPRK naughtiness aimed at South Korea. At some appropriate moment, China will suggest to South Korea that the real destabilizing influence on the peninsula is the presence of US forces in South Korea 60 years after the end of hostilities, and that perhaps China might be a better guarantor of South Korea’s security. The South Koreans should be forgiven for looking with skepticism on that assertion.

Iran is difficult to predict because it is run by a bunch of millenialists who believe they are charged with bringing about the coming of the 12th Imam and therefore, the end of the world. In other words, they are insane. That does not mean, however, that they are stupid. They are crafty, cagey and ruthless; there are no limits on their behavior. In the Cold War, we could always be relatively certain the Russians would not deliberately commit suicide. For these people, suicide is just another tactic. And killing “innocents” is justified if it brings about Paradise. Some things we can expect. Escalating petty provocations in the Gulf: small craft, perhaps loaded with explosives, perhaps not, interfering with naval operations. Shooting at drones. Floating mines down the main shipping channels. These are all possibilities.

Meanwhile, they will continue to offer talks about nuclear issues. This two pronged policy is designed to reveal the essential powerlessness of the “International Community” and especially the US to make the Persian Gulf safe, or to end the Iranian nuclear threat. They will play for time even as they provoke and our Administration will go along with it because they can “view with alarm” and not really do anything until it’s too late to do anything. The Iranian intention is to emerge as the regional power, and then protected by their control of nuclear weapons, turn their attention to the destruction of Israel. In the coming weeks the pace of provocations will increase to the evident inability of the US Administration to respond in any meaningful way. And, oh by the way, expect more out of Hamas and Hezbollah as we are seeing now in the Gaza/Israel battle. A result of the fecklessness of the Obama Administration has been that Iran has formed a “sphere of influence” that runs from Afghanistan through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean. In less than 4 years of stupidity and ideologically driven policy, Obama achieved what the Ayatollahs could not in 10 years of war he delivered Iraq to Iran as a client state. In so doing he erased centuries of Turkish and Arab policy of confining Iran to the eastern side of the Gulf. Well done, Barak. All of this to the delight of and with the active assistance of Russia. Putin has already chased the US out of a major commitment in Central Europe: the missile shield to protect all of Europe from potential Iranian mayhem. As Putin seeks to reassemble the Soviet Empire, he will keep the pressure on Central Europe and then expand his efforts in the Baltic. The Russian cyber attack on Latvia a few years ago was just a foretaste The Administration’s reset of relations with Russia will inevitably lead to increased political, economic, and occasionally military pressure all across Russia’s near-abroad: all to illustrate US impotence in Central Asia , Central Europe, and the Baltic. Soon enough, they will even challenge us directly in the Arctic.

It is no accident that China, Iran, and Russia have found common cause with the Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua axis of irritation in our own hemisphere. They will all, with the active support of the American left, continue to undermine any stability that the US might have tried to establish in our own backyard.

Taken all together, these arrangements are not mortal threats to the US, but they are and can be damaging. The impact on us is primarily to our GDP. The impact on our friends, who will be the actual targets, such as Israel, Japan, the Baltic States, the Philippines, range from existential to severely curtailed freedom.

In the 4 days since I began drafting this, Hamas has picked a fight with Israel using Iranian supplied missiles, built with Russian technology, bought with Chinese and Saudi money, with major political support from a radicalized Egyptian government. They didn’t even wait for the Electoral College to meet and make it official. Welcome to a preview of the next 4 years.

 

Signed,

Ed (last name withheld)

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